How do I calculate my win rate?

Divide your number of winning trades by your total number of trades (wins plus losses), then multiply by 100. For example, 55 wins out of 100 total trades gives a 55% win rate.

What is breakeven win rate?

Breakeven win rate is the minimum win percentage you need to avoid losing money over time, given your risk/reward ratio. It's calculated as 1 / (1 + risk/reward ratio) × 100. For a 1:2 risk/reward ratio, the breakeven win rate is 33.3% — meaning you can be profitable even if you lose two-thirds of your trades.

Is a higher win rate always better?

Not necessarily. A high win rate strategy with small wins and occasional large losses (common in martingale or grid strategies) can have a worse overall expectancy than a lower win rate strategy with a strong risk/reward ratio. What matters is whether your actual win rate exceeds the breakeven win rate for your typical risk/reward ratio — by a comfortable margin.

How many trades do I need before my win rate is meaningful?

Most traders and analysts suggest at least 30-50 trades before drawing conclusions about a strategy's win rate, and 100+ for higher confidence. With small sample sizes, a few lucky or unlucky trades can swing your win rate significantly and give a misleading picture of your edge.

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Win Rate & Breakeven Calculator

Calculate your win rate and see how it compares to the breakeven win rate required by your risk/reward ratio.

Configure

Winning trades

Losing trades

Target R:R ratio (e.g. 2 = 1:2)

Result

Above breakeven

Win rate

55.0%

Total trades

100

Breakeven win rate

33.3%

Edge vs breakeven

+21.7 pp

Your win rate is 21.7 percentage points above breakeven for a 1:2 R:R

Track this automatically in your trading journal — no more manual math.

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Projected P/L over 100 trades

in R units · 1:2 R:R

Projected cumulative P/L at your current win rate vs. the breakeven line (0R slope). Above the dashed line = profitable strategy.

How to use the win rate calculator

Pull your winning and losing trade counts from your trading journal and enter them along with your typical (or target) risk/reward ratio. The calculator shows your actual win rate alongside the breakeven win rate implied by that ratio — the minimum win percentage you'd need just to avoid losing money.

If your actual win rate is comfortably above the breakeven line, your strategy has a statistical edge. If it's close to or below the breakeven line, even a small losing streak could push your overall results negative, which is especially dangerous during a prop firm evaluation with strict drawdown limits.

Re-run this calculation periodically as you log more trades. Win rate and the ratios that depend on it tend to stabilize as your sample size grows, giving you a much clearer picture of your real edge than any single week or month.